Comments on: Market Timing Example http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/market-timing-example/ Investing and Personal Finance Fri, 10 Feb 2012 14:34:49 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: 401k Plans Suck And Must Die - Amateur Asset Allocator http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/market-timing-example/comment-page-1/#comment-14678 401k Plans Suck And Must Die - Amateur Asset Allocator Tue, 12 May 2009 11:03:24 +0000 http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/market-timing-example/#comment-14678 [...] investors’ best efforts to fudge things up.  Investors made every mistake in the book:  market timing, investing in expensive actively-managed funds, etc, but a rising tide lifts all boats, and even [...]

]]> By: Carnival of Personal Finance #116 - Post-Labor Day Edition http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/market-timing-example/comment-page-1/#comment-808 Carnival of Personal Finance #116 - Post-Labor Day Edition Wed, 05 Sep 2007 16:08:06 +0000 http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/market-timing-example/#comment-808 [...] Market Timing Example (from Four [...] [...] Market Timing Example (from Four [...]

]]> By: FourPillars http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/market-timing-example/comment-page-1/#comment-789 FourPillars Tue, 04 Sep 2007 02:28:54 +0000 http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/market-timing-example/#comment-789 Lon, the problem with specific strategies such as the ones you mentioned is that they don't last. Once other traders find out about any perceived trading advantage, it will disappear. Mike Lon, the problem with specific strategies such as the ones you mentioned is that they don’t last. Once other traders find out about any perceived trading advantage, it will disappear.

Mike

]]> By: Lon Purvis http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/market-timing-example/comment-page-1/#comment-788 Lon Purvis Tue, 04 Sep 2007 02:07:04 +0000 http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/market-timing-example/#comment-788 If timing doesn't work why was 80% of all the money ever made in the market made between Nov 1st and April 30th. Also a good return can be made by being in the market only the last 3 days of a month and the first 2 of the next month. Not perfect for sure but a lot less risk. I realize only a few can time the market because most have made it way too complex and I have made the same mistake at times. If timing doesn’t work why was 80% of all the money ever made in the market made between Nov 1st and April 30th. Also a good return can be made by being in the market only the last 3 days of a month and the first 2 of the next month. Not perfect for sure but a lot less risk.
I realize only a few can time the market because most have made it way too complex and I have made the same mistake at times.

]]> By: Advanced Personal Finance » Blog Archive » Carnival of Personal Finance #116 - NSA Edition http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/market-timing-example/comment-page-1/#comment-785 Advanced Personal Finance » Blog Archive » Carnival of Personal Finance #116 - NSA Edition Tue, 04 Sep 2007 01:37:18 +0000 http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/market-timing-example/#comment-785 [...] Pillars gives you a market timing example. I don’t want to give away the ending, so I’ll just leave it at [...] [...] Pillars gives you a market timing example. I don’t want to give away the ending, so I’ll just leave it at [...]

]]> By: FourPillars http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/market-timing-example/comment-page-1/#comment-691 FourPillars Tue, 28 Aug 2007 03:04:17 +0000 http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/market-timing-example/#comment-691 <p>BB - I'll add to that list "liar".</p> <p>I've met people who say they can time the market but when it comes down to opening the books and doing a proper accounting (and yes I'm willing to do this), it never happens. All I want to do is compare their trading returns to a broad-market ETF and see how much difference they make.</p> <p>The reality is that even if someone can beat the market - so what? Unless they can beat it by an incredible amount or they have a huge portfolio (ie 5 mill+) it's not worth the effort unless they really enjoy it.</p> <p>Mike</p> BB – I’ll add to that list “liar”.

I’ve met people who say they can time the market but when it comes down to opening the books and doing a proper accounting (and yes I’m willing to do this), it never happens. All I want to do is compare their trading returns to a broad-market ETF and see how much difference they make.

The reality is that even if someone can beat the market – so what? Unless they can beat it by an incredible amount or they have a huge portfolio (ie 5 mill+) it’s not worth the effort unless they really enjoy it.

Mike

]]> By: Brip Blap http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/market-timing-example/comment-page-1/#comment-689 Brip Blap Tue, 28 Aug 2007 01:52:07 +0000 http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/market-timing-example/#comment-689 I try very hard to stick with a conservative buy-and-hold index funds strategy and I see no reason to think that it won't pay out in the long run. I spent a large part of the late 80s trying to time the market and have absolutely nothing to show for it. Show me someone who timed the market and I'll show you someone who's lucky or a crook or both... I try very hard to stick with a conservative buy-and-hold index funds strategy and I see no reason to think that it won’t pay out in the long run. I spent a large part of the late 80s trying to time the market and have absolutely nothing to show for it. Show me someone who timed the market and I’ll show you someone who’s lucky or a crook or both…

]]> By: FourPillars http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/market-timing-example/comment-page-1/#comment-688 FourPillars Mon, 27 Aug 2007 13:31:52 +0000 http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/market-timing-example/#comment-688 Very true MG - I deliberately kept this example very simple - perhaps too simple? I guess for the purpose of simplicity I'm going to say that all three investors had their money in an rrsp or tax sheltered account. That way I can ignore the tax issues. In a taxable account, the buy and hold 100% equity investor would have an even greater advantage because they wouldn't be paying any capital gains tax until the end. I ignored the commissions since the trader only does his switches every year & a half so they shouldn't be too significant. Mike Very true MG – I deliberately kept this example very simple – perhaps too simple?

I guess for the purpose of simplicity I’m going to say that all three investors had their money in an rrsp or tax sheltered account. That way I can ignore the tax issues. In a taxable account, the buy and hold 100% equity investor would have an even greater advantage because they wouldn’t be paying any capital gains tax until the end.

I ignored the commissions since the trader only does his switches every year & a half so they shouldn’t be too significant.

Mike

]]> By: moneygardener http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/market-timing-example/comment-page-1/#comment-687 moneygardener Mon, 27 Aug 2007 12:59:44 +0000 http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/market-timing-example/#comment-687 Other factors that matter here: Timer: - commissions - the stress, and guessing game of picking points of entry and exit - taxes incurred in a non registered portfolio when selling Conservative: - tempting to use cash of other facets of life - taxes on interest gained in savings account Other factors that matter here:

Timer:

- commissions
- the stress, and guessing game of picking points of entry and exit
- taxes incurred in a non registered portfolio when selling

Conservative:

- tempting to use cash of other facets of life
- taxes on interest gained in savings account

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